June 29, 2006
Polls and those who report the results
Ah, polls tell us whatever we want to know. How do people in Venezuela feel about Hugo Chavez and are people in Wisconsin happy or grumpy? Well, maybe, just maybe, polls tell us whatever the pollster and the people paying for the poll want us to know.
Suppose you had very deep pockets and could poll every day on any issue. Suppose you oppose Jim Doyle and support Mark Green or vice-versa. You call your pollster and tell him or her to find out how the head-to-head race is going. The results come back and your candidate is down 25 points. Do you release the results? Of course not. You wait for some bad news about your opposition--Green tied to Tom DeLay or Doyle looks bad in Travelgate. Time to take another poll. This time, your candidate is only five points behind--within the margin of error.
Get the news out immediately! Not only will it help in fundraising because the heavy-breathers like winners, it boosts the candidate's morale.
Now, if you release the poll from your candidate's headquarters, the results might be suspect. The media might not even cover the story. So, how do you package your "results" to maximize the impact? You work with a group with a name that suggests non-partisanship. You know, like Wisconsin Policy Research Institute. WPRI. Wow, now you are cookin'. Wisconsin--good start--our focus. "Policy" good feeling--not politics but policy. "Research" now you are wooing them. This is not phony it is based on research. And finally, not from a campaign but from an "Institute" no less.
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel carried a major story from WPRI recently: "Feeling grumpy?" A poll showed most Badgers think we are on the wrong track. Advantage Green. Worse, 39 percent think things will "get worse." Solution? How about a new governor? (They didn't say that. They didn't have to. People who take the poll seriosly will reach that conclusion on their own.)
Most people will believe the poll results are legitimate. It comes from a non-partisan institute and the MJS heralds it as fact. Do we know who funds WPRI? Do we know who shaped the questions? Do we know how many polls were not released? No and hell no.
But, in the nod toward journalism, the last sentence in the long story says, "WPRI is a privately funded think tank..and generally associated with conservative positions." I am not making this up. Think tank. Really? The extremist Bradley Foundation funds WPRI. And "generally associated with conservsative positions"? How about killing government through TABOR; vouchers; funding The Bell Curve?
Generally associated with conservative positions??? I challenge the reporter to name one progressive position WPRI has supported. Stay glued to your chair. The think tank is thinking hard.
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